·         That was a weak jobs report, not just for July, but for all of 2025.

·         Focus on the data, not the theatrics that come with it.

·         Was Friday's market action kneejerk or the right read – time will tell.

·       Trade deals aplenty with equity markets having already priced in much of it.

·       Q2 earnings beating expectations with a big week of reports ahead.

·       Turning ‘tactically’ cautious with sentiment and positioning fully reloaded.

·       Mega-cap leadership continues to pull equities higher.

·       Don’t tell the stock market, but economic growth for 2025 is anemic.

·       Structural view – real assets > financial assets.

●      Teflon market taking latest tariff actions in stride.

●      Global liquidity inflecting higher – tailwind for risk assets.

●      Complacency setting in, with most assets priced for only good outcomes. 

• Epic rally in equities that are looking through everything.

• Senate passes One Big Beautiful Bill and July 9th tariff deadline isn’t a real deadline.

• Lots to think about with the slide in the U.S. dollar.

·       Capital markets unphased by U.S. entry into Iran / Israel dispute.

·       U.S. dollar and interest rates signaling a potential regime change is afoot.

·       Some Fed officials breaking ranks and cracking the door for rate cuts.

 ·       S&P 500 reclaims 6,000 as equities become dismissive of bad news.

·       Positioning, sentiment, and valuations are no longer tailwinds.

·       Idea generation and opportunities beyond broad-based U.S. equities.

·       Stocks rally for their best month in over a year, but are unchanged from early-November

·       In its current form, the “Big Beautiful Bill” lacks a stimulative impulse

Year-to-date scorecard suggests the U.S. exceptionalism trade is fading

·       Debt downgrade treated with a yawn, but it does have structural importance for investors.

·       Subtle shift from horrible to less bad pushes equities back near all-time highs.

·       Bond yields are pushing up to levels that will bother equities.

·       Investors should favor exposure to scarce vs. abundant assets.

·       A necessary and welcome reset on U.S. and China trade policy.

·       U.S. equities have recovered all post-Liberation Day decline.

·       Fiscal policy largesse not being reigned in matters.

·       Equities have recovered all the post-liberation day sell-off.

·       Deal headlines or the lack of will be the next catalyst.

·       Market rally overlooking the negatives of this policy cocktail.

Bear market rally or a fading flesh wound?

Sentiment and positioning could be a catalyst to push the S&P 500 up to pre-Liberation Day levels.

Risk/reward profile becomes less desirable between 5,500 – 5,800 on the S&P 500.

• Equities rally on tariff reprieve.

• Investors shouldn’t get complacent with this rally.

• Things have changed.

• Time to de-gross.

·       Carnage in the equity market is now hitting everything.

·       Sentiment and technicals are reaching capitulation points.

·       For those positioned for what transpired, it's time shift your mindset from defense to offense.

·       S&P retested March 13^th low of 5,500 this morning – it's an important level to hold.

·       Growth scare is priced – recession risk is not. 

·       Friday’s jobs report will set the tone for recession watch.

·       A subtle walk back on tariff talk ignites a relief rally.

·       Incoming data and policy moves will determine the extent and duration of this bounce.

·       Diversification is no longer a dirty fifteen-letter word.

·       The stock market is not the measuring stick for this administration.

·       Trade feud with Canada sheds light on U.S. ambitions/strategy.

·       Fiscal policy matters and the baton is being passed.

• Short-term pain for long-term gain – easier said than done.

• Capital flows to where it's treated best.

• Equities are likely close to short-term bottom, but unlikely to be ‘the bottom’.

·        Growth scare getting priced by markets.

·        Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast craters.

·        Not the time to be a hero, it’s a time to carry less risk.