The Chokepoint Dilemma: Historical precedents indicate that control of critical maritime chokepoints is rarely achieved through naval superiority or closure alone; rather, these crises are typically resolved through negotiated settlements. In the current standoff, watch for the influence of major energy-importing nations – specifically China, India, Japan, and South Korea – to play a factor that determines how/when this conflict gets resolved.

Macro Disconnect and Passive Flows: A profound divergence exists between a "feeble" U.S. macro environment—evidenced by consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level since 1952—and record-high corporate profit margins. Equities care more about the latter, so as long as they continue to grow, its difficult to get too negative on stocks.

Strategic Themes and Global Shifts: As the world moves past "peak globalization" toward policy centered on national security and energy independence, market leadership is concentrating in AI-related physical infrastructure and power resilience.  What was leadership prior to the Iran conflict is reasserting itself as leadership since the ceasefire (AI, semiconductors, energy, foreign equities, commodities…) while areas that were weak continue to remain so (software, healthcare, IT services…AI disruption theme).

·       Equities rally on hopes of Iran War winding down: Markets bounced last week, but the fragility of the geopolitical landscape means sudden headline shocks remain a primary risk to asset prices.

·       Corrections during midterm election years are par for the course: While a potential shift in Washington is unnerving markets, a >10% drawdown in a midterm year is historically normal and often precedes robust recoveries.

·       Wait and react rather than anticipate: With the risk/reward heavily skewed and the Fed boxed in by inflation, the current environment demands a balanced portfolio that preserves capital while keeping "skin in the game."

·       Markets will struggle as long as oil transit remains restricted.

·       Some contrarian ‘buy’ signals are starting to trigger.

·       Nothing wrong with ‘living to fight another day’.

·       Worst-case scenarios coming off the table on the Iran war.

·       Good for asset prices, which have been moving inversely to oil prices.

·       Risks to growth and inflation overtake war worries.  

·       Equities need oil prices to stop going up.

·       Connecting the dots on U.S. economic statecraft.

·       What signals I’m monitoring to gauge whether the worst is behind us.

·       Not even war drums can knock the S&P 500 out of its sideways range

·       AI hysteria overdone

·       Don’t let geopolitics drive investment decisions

·       AI is at it again, new model release = another industry-specific selloff.

·       Nice rotation keeps S&P 500 above 6,800 – trouble awaits below.

·       The worst of the tariff uncertainty is in the rearview.

·         AI fear is making its way from one industry to another.

·         ‘Good data, bad price action’ - equities shrug off solid jobs report, and better CPI inflation print.

·         Rest of World equities continue to outshine U.S. equities.

·       MegaCap Tech spending splurge riles equity market.

·       But, economic growth tailwinds and earnings lend support.

·       Periods of rapid change demand humility and discipline.

·       Markets react to Warsh getting Fed chair nomination.

·       Latecomers to precious metals get humbled.

·       S&P 500 not ratifying bullish narrative.

• Precious metals mania - tread carefully.

• Where does the upside come from for risk assets from here?

• A chat with Alphabet’s Gemini AI.

·       Risk-off in markets as Trump ups aggression in pursuit of Greenland.

·       Rising bond yields adding pressure to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

·       Unwind of U.S. exceptionalism poses a big risk for investors.

·       U.S. equities off to a strong start, global equities even stronger.

·       Markets correctly sifting ‘signal’ from ‘noise’.

·       Uranium market set-up for fireworks.

·       Last year's winners start 2026 where they left off.

·       The transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar world is playing out.

·       If 2026 meets expectations, it should be a constructive year.

·       AI theme getting questioned.

·       Fed cuts rates, and looks to be on hold.

·       U.S. National Security Strategy report asserts change is coming.

·       Markets have been chopping sideways for the last 4-6 weeks.

·       Labor market showing wider cracks.

·       Affordability frustration is about cumulative inflation costs, not YoY change.

·         Holiday rally pushes the S&P 500 back up near all-time highs.

·         Power capacity is the bottleneck in the AI revolution.

·         Not much to get excited about (in either direction) in capital markets.

·       Earnings from the largest company in the world didn’t disappoint.

·      But the price action validates an ongoing character change in the AI theme.

·       Markets got some clarity on uncertainties that have been worrying investors.

·       S&P 500 at risk of breaking levels that would trigger systematic selling by CTA and vol-control funds.

·       Markets repricing for less accommodative Fed.

·       Nvidia earnings on tap – can it save the AI theme.

·       End of the shutdown sparks a risk-on rally.

·       Mega-cap tech spending spree getting stretched.

·       The divide between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ is undermining capitalism.