Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Violently Sideways

·       Not even war drums can knock the S&P 500 out of its sideways range

·       AI hysteria overdone

·       Don’t let geopolitics drive investment decisions

 

 

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Does The Nice Rotation Turn Nasty?

·       AI is at it again, new model release = another industry-specific selloff.

·       Nice rotation keeps S&P 500 above 6,800 – trouble awaits below.

·       The worst of the tariff uncertainty is in the rearview.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Markets Struggling To Ascend ‘Wall Of Worry’

·         AI fear is making its way from one industry to another.

·         ‘Good data, bad price action’ - equities shrug off solid jobs report, and better CPI inflation print.

·         Rest of World equities continue to outshine U.S. equities.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Markets Digesting Warsh As Next Fed Chair

·       Markets react to Warsh getting Fed chair nomination.

·       Latecomers to precious metals get humbled.

·       S&P 500 not ratifying bullish narrative.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

It’s A Real Asset World, Until Proven Otherwise

·       Last year's winners start 2026 where they left off.

·       The transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar world is playing out.

·       If 2026 meets expectations, it should be a constructive year.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Markets Repricing Increased Uncertainty

·       AI theme getting questioned.

·       Fed cuts rates, and looks to be on hold.

·       U.S. National Security Strategy report asserts change is coming.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

The Affordability Crisis Will Impact Policy

·       Markets have been chopping sideways for the last 4-6 weeks.

·       Labor market showing wider cracks.

·       Affordability frustration is about cumulative inflation costs, not YoY change.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

In Need Of A Jump Start

·         Holiday rally pushes the S&P 500 back up near all-time highs.

·         Power capacity is the bottleneck in the AI revolution.

·         Not much to get excited about (in either direction) in capital markets.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

General Thoughts On Markets And Other Things

·       Earnings from the largest company in the world didn’t disappoint.

·      But the price action validates an ongoing character change in the AI theme.

·       Markets got some clarity on uncertainties that have been worrying investors.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Window Of Vulnerability

·       S&P 500 at risk of breaking levels that would trigger systematic selling by CTA and vol-control funds.

·       Markets repricing for less accommodative Fed.

·       Nvidia earnings on tap – can it save the AI theme.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Is Capitalism Under Threat?

·       End of the shutdown sparks a risk-on rally.

·       Mega-cap tech spending spree getting stretched.

·       The divide between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ is undermining capitalism.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Corporate Profits Fueling Equity Gains

·       Q3 earnings helping to push equities higher – Mega Cap Tech reports on deck.

·       Rarely mentioned, but global equities are having a great year.

·       Is the energy sector underappreciated by investors?

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Some General Thoughts

·       Asset prices had a good week with gold showing its shine.

·       U.S. and Chinese officials posture ahead of Trump/Xi meeting.

·       This isn’t just a trade war – it’s for who sets global order over the next century.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Under Threat

·       Tariff headlines drive volatility in both directions.

·       There is a lot at stake in this U.S./China conflict.

·       Diversification is not a dirty fifteen letter word.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Trade The Narrative; Own The Truth

·       Data is sparse with the shutdown, but what we got wasn’t good.

·       Lots of calls to embrace the everything rally – raises my skepticism.

·       Debasement strategy becoming mainstream – as it should.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

A Time For Vigilance And Prudence

·       Markets await a slate of economic data, including the September jobs report on Friday if we’re able to avert a government shutdown.

·       A good time to revisit return expectations and your financial objectives.

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